Welcome

Website counter
website hit counter
website hit counters

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Peter Goodspeed: Israel expects ‘a grave erosion’ of peace treaty with Egypt, Minister says

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/23/peter-goodspeed-israel-expects-a-grave-erosion-of-peace-treaty-with-egypt-minister-says/

Peter Goodspeed: Israel expects 'a grave erosion' of peace treaty with Egypt, Minister says

 Nov 23, 2011 – 10:00 PM ET

Mohamed Abd El-Ghany / Reuters

Mohamed Abd El-Ghany / Reuters

A protester runs after setting fire to a car during clashes with police in front of the Security Administrative building in Alexandria on Wednesday. After six days of violence that has killed more than 30 and four days before voting for parliament begins, there was no sign of an end to the confrontation between Egypt's military rulers and demonstrators.

Israelis are nervously watching Egypt's revolution reignite with protests in Tahrir Square raising fears a decades-old military dictatorship may soon be replaced by Islamist radicals who will pose a new security threat.

When Israel's inner security Cabinet met for eight hours Tuesday to discuss annual intelligence assessments compiled by Shin Bet, the Mossad, Military Intelligence and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its discussions apparently were dominated by concerns about Egypt, Syria and Iran.

Wednesday morning's edition of Yediot Aharonot, Israel's top-selling newspaper, carried the front-page headline: "Between Cairo and Tehran," in reference to the Middle East's rising Islamist tide.

The newspaper Maariv also reported that Israel's army chief, Benny Gantz, "presented the security Cabinet with a scenario involving the cancellation of the peace treaty" between Egypt and Israel.

Also on Wednesday, Israel's Minister for Civil Defence, Matan Vilnai, told Israel's Army Radio that security experts expect a "grave erosion" of Israel's 32-year-old peace treaty with Egypt, if the Muslim Brotherhood makes major gains in Egypt's upcoming elections.

"The picture is quite clear," he said. "We've been saying it for months. What we call the Muslim Brotherhood will ultimately be the majority in all the [Egyptian] institutions and once the regime stabilizes, as we expect it to do, we expect that there will be a grave erosion of this agreement. We have to prepare for such a situation."

The peace treaty with Egypt has been a cornerstone of Israel's security doctrine for three decades, guaranteeing relative quiet along its southern border and allowing Israel's military to focus on threats elsewhere.

Israel and Egypt's militaries learned to co-operate with each other and shared an interest in guarding the border and limiting the influence of Hamas in Gaza.

But relations have already deteriorated sharply since the ousting of former dictator Hosni Mubarak in February. Arab terrorists have launched cross-border attacks into Israel from the Sinai and repeatedly blown up an Egyptian pipeline that carries natural gas to Israel and Jordan. In September, a Cairo mob stormed and destroyed Israel's Egyptian embassy.

The situation may only deteriorate further as Egypt experiences its first real taste of political competition in more than 40 years with the scheduled start of parliamentary elections on Monday.

"The political context in Egypt, when it comes to peace with Israel, might be changing," said David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Islamist parties — led by the Muslin Brotherhood but not exclusively — could be a dominant political bloc."

Amr Abdallah Dalsh / Reuters

A protester throws a tear gas canister during clashes near Tahrir Square in Cairo.

Israel could become a target of convenience for competing politicians and a military that wants to cling to power while limiting confrontations with the Egyptian public.

"There is political capital to be made in saying, 'We're going to take a tougher position toward Israel,'" Mr. Makovsky said.

"In light of the January 25 Revolution, Israel no longer has the luxury or the security, of dealing with a handful of Egyptian leaders," writes Mirette Mabrouk, of the Brookings Institute. "While the move toward democracy in Egypt is likely to be a slow and painful grind, Israel is still going to have to deal with a government more accountable to its people. And considering that any new government is going to struggle with the prodigious social and economic burdens left by the former regime, a populist foreign policy may be considered an easy crowd-pleaser."

Israel has already braced for change by doubling up its military deployments along the Sinai and accelerating construction of a $400- million, five-metre tall, security fence along 240 kilometres of the Egyptian border.

Any cooling of relations with Cairo could have major repercussions for Israel, since Egypt is more than just an Arab neighbour, but plays a dominant role in the rest of the Arab world.

"It looks like it is going to be a long Arab Winter," said Moshe Arens, a former Israeli defence and foreign minister.

"The Islamists are going to inherit the mantle of the dictators. A wave of Islamic rule, with all it entails, is sweeping across the Arab world. It will replace secular dictatorships with Islamic ones. We should have expected nothing else."

National Post
pgoodspeed@nationalpost.com

Posted in: Full CommentWorld Politics  Tags: ,

What do you think?

No comments:

मैं नास्तिक क्यों हूं# Necessity of Atheism#!Genetics Bharat Teertha

হে মোর চিত্ত, Prey for Humanity!

मनुस्मृति नस्ली राजकाज राजनीति में OBC Trump Card और जयभीम कामरेड

Gorkhaland again?আত্মঘাতী বাঙালি আবার বিভাজন বিপর্যয়ের মুখোমুখি!

हिंदुत्व की राजनीति का मुकाबला हिंदुत्व की राजनीति से नहीं किया जा सकता।

In conversation with Palash Biswas

Palash Biswas On Unique Identity No1.mpg

Save the Universities!

RSS might replace Gandhi with Ambedkar on currency notes!

जैसे जर्मनी में सिर्फ हिटलर को बोलने की आजादी थी,आज सिर्फ मंकी बातों की आजादी है।

#BEEFGATEঅন্ধকার বৃত্তান্তঃ হত্যার রাজনীতি

अलविदा पत्रकारिता,अब कोई प्रतिक्रिया नहीं! पलाश विश्वास

ভালোবাসার মুখ,প্রতিবাদের মুখ মন্দাক্রান্তার পাশে আছি,যে মেয়েটি আজও লিখতে পারছেঃ আমাক ধর্ষণ করবে?

Palash Biswas on BAMCEF UNIFICATION!

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS ON NEPALI SENTIMENT, GORKHALAND, KUMAON AND GARHWAL ETC.and BAMCEF UNIFICATION! Published on Mar 19, 2013 The Himalayan Voice Cambridge, Massachusetts United States of America

BAMCEF UNIFICATION CONFERENCE 7

Published on 10 Mar 2013 ALL INDIA BAMCEF UNIFICATION CONFERENCE HELD AT Dr.B. R. AMBEDKAR BHAVAN,DADAR,MUMBAI ON 2ND AND 3RD MARCH 2013. Mr.PALASH BISWAS (JOURNALIST -KOLKATA) DELIVERING HER SPEECH. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLL-n6MrcoM http://youtu.be/oLL-n6MrcoM

Imminent Massive earthquake in the Himalayas

Palash Biswas on Citizenship Amendment Act

Mr. PALASH BISWAS DELIVERING SPEECH AT BAMCEF PROGRAM AT NAGPUR ON 17 & 18 SEPTEMBER 2003 Sub:- CITIZENSHIP AMENDMENT ACT 2003 http://youtu.be/zGDfsLzxTXo

Tweet Please

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS BLASTS INDIANS THAT CLAIM BUDDHA WAS BORN IN INDIA

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: INDIAN GOVERNMENT FOOD SECURITY PROGRAM RISKIER

http://youtu.be/NrcmNEjaN8c The government of India has announced food security program ahead of elections in 2014. We discussed the issue with Palash Biswas in Kolkata today. http://youtu.be/NrcmNEjaN8c Ahead of Elections, India's Cabinet Approves Food Security Program ______________________________________________________ By JIM YARDLEY http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/indias-cabinet-passes-food-security-law/

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS TALKS AGAINST CASTEIST HEGEMONY IN SOUTH ASIA

THE HIMALAYAN VOICE: PALASH BISWAS DISCUSSES RAM MANDIR

Published on 10 Apr 2013 Palash Biswas spoke to us from Kolkota and shared his views on Visho Hindu Parashid's programme from tomorrow ( April 11, 2013) to build Ram Mandir in disputed Ayodhya. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77cZuBunAGk

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS LASHES OUT KATHMANDU INT'L 'MULVASI' CONFERENCE

अहिले भर्खर कोलकता भारतमा हामीले पलाश विश्वाससंग काठमाडौँमा आज भै रहेको अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मूलवासी सम्मेलनको बारेमा कुराकानी गर्यौ । उहाले भन्नु भयो सो सम्मेलन 'नेपालको आदिवासी जनजातिहरुको आन्दोलनलाई कम्जोर बनाउने षडयन्त्र हो।' http://youtu.be/j8GXlmSBbbk

THE HIMALAYAN DISASTER: TRANSNATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT MECHANISM A MUST

We talked with Palash Biswas, an editor for Indian Express in Kolkata today also. He urged that there must a transnational disaster management mechanism to avert such scale disaster in the Himalayas. http://youtu.be/7IzWUpRECJM

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS CRITICAL OF BAMCEF LEADERSHIP

[Palash Biswas, one of the BAMCEF leaders and editors for Indian Express spoke to us from Kolkata today and criticized BAMCEF leadership in New Delhi, which according to him, is messing up with Nepalese indigenous peoples also. He also flayed MP Jay Narayan Prasad Nishad, who recently offered a Puja in his New Delhi home for Narendra Modi's victory in 2014.]

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS CRITICIZES GOVT FOR WORLD`S BIGGEST BLACK OUT

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS CRITICIZES GOVT FOR WORLD`S BIGGEST BLACK OUT

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALSH BISWAS FLAYS SOUTH ASIAN GOVERNM

Palash Biswas, lashed out those 1% people in the government in New Delhi for failure of delivery and creating hosts of problems everywhere in South Asia. http://youtu.be/lD2_V7CB2Is

THE HIMALAYAN TALK: PALASH BISWAS LASHES OUT KATHMANDU INT'L 'MULVASI' CONFERENCE

अहिले भर्खर कोलकता भारतमा हामीले पलाश विश्वाससंग काठमाडौँमा आज भै रहेको अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मूलवासी सम्मेलनको बारेमा कुराकानी गर्यौ । उहाले भन्नु भयो सो सम्मेलन 'नेपालको आदिवासी जनजातिहरुको आन्दोलनलाई कम्जोर बनाउने षडयन्त्र हो।' http://youtu.be/j8GXlmSBbbk