Turkey, Iran in race to dominate Ardently Muslim nations vying for role as top leader

Turkey, Iran in race to dominate

Ardently Muslim nations vying for role as top leader

Publishing Date: 21.09.11 11:24

Prime Minister Erdogan

By F. Michael Maloof

WASHINGTON – The competition between Turkey and Iran over influence on Iraq, and indeed, the rest of the Middle East, is prompting outward concern in Tehran over what was thought to be a close relationship between the nations.

The sentiment is rising just as Ankara announced a decision to allow installation of a controversial U.S. radar for an anti-ballistic missile system aimed at deterring Iranian missiles.

At the same time, Iran has begun to increase its strategic relationship with Russia.

Analysts confirm Turkey and Iran generally have enjoyed close ties and cooperate in a variety of fields including trade, economic relations, fighting terrorism, drug trafficking and promoting stability in Iraq and Central Asia.

Indeed, Turkey has been strengthening its ties to Iran and other countries in the East, attempting to re-establish its historical influence, ever since the Muslim government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2002. In undertaking a "zero problems" foreign policy, Turkey has sought to be a mediator in disputes between Iran and the West, especially over Iran's refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program, which is now subject to United Nations sanctions.

For that reason, Turkey has been a strong supporter of Iran's right to develop nuclear energy and has sought to work out an agreement on the Iranian right to enrich uranium under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Tehran is a signatory, against Western sanctions designed to halt that enrichment

Turkey also supports Iran on the issue of Palestinian rights, an issue which has driven a wedge between Ankara and Israel to the point just short of severing diplomatic relations.

At the same time, Sunni Turkey appears to be competing with the Shi'ite Islamic Republic for influence in the Middle East as a result of the Arab Spring. The turmoil there has altered more than 30 years of strategic alignment with the West, leaving a political void which Ankara now seeks to fill.

Erdogan's most recent visit to Cairo, Egypt, demonstrated Turkey's interest in filling that void with a fellow Muslim country left by the greatly diminished influence of the United States and European countries there.

Regional sources point out that Erdogan has embarked on a "revolution tour" not only in Egypt but also in Tunisia and Libya, the other two North African countries which have been embroiled in violence, demonstrations and regime change.

Ironically, Israelis are comparing Erdogan with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who similarly seeks to cast Tehran's influence in the Sunni Arab world. Indeed, Iran is accepting credit for the various Arab revolts, comparing them to Iran's own 1979 Islamic revolution.

The comparison between the two countries merges on the issue of support for a Palestinian state and a desire to keep the lid on any violent outbreak that could cascade into all-out regional conflict. They also have been together on the issue of Syria, trying to get its President, Bashar al-Assad, to institute reforms.

Turkey has had to deal with the overflow of fleeing refugees from Syria, with the veiled threat to al-Assad that Erdogan may order Turkish troops into Syria to save the refugees from Syrian government bombardment.

In seeing his influence to be limited with Damascus, the Turkish prime minister is considering going through Tehran to prevail on Damascus, with whom the Islamic republic has close ties.

However, the strategic goals between the two countries appear to be diverging in regions where the influence of both countries is great from the Middle East to Central Asia.

Regional analysts say that what appears to be evolving is an Iranian link-up with Russia even though their relationship is more out of expedience, while Turkey is refreshing some of its links to the United States.

U.S. relations with Turkey have been strained ever since Erdogan came to power with a more Islamic-oriented government. Over time, Erodgan was successful in eroding the power of the Turkish General Staff which, in the past, had the power to oust prime ministers. Then Erdogan refused the use of Turkish bases from which the U.S. could launch attacks on neighboring Iraq, even though Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Over time, the turmoil in the Middle East has prompted a change in strategy by the Erdogan government.

As G2Bulletin recently reported, Ankara has agreed with Washington to deploy a radar system in Turkey as part of the European missile shield that Washington wants created ultimately to halt Iranian ballistic missiles.

The radar system, the mobile AN/TYP-2, will be stationed at Turkey's Kurecik military base near the Turkish city of Malatya, with initial deployment to begin at the end of this year.

The new agreement between Ankara and Washington prompted Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi to declare it as a "worrying move," and called on Turkey to explain the decision.

"The system has caused concern in the Islamic Republic of Iran and many other neighboring countries and we don't see any necessity for the deployment of such a system under the current conditions that the region is witnessing different developments and events," Salehi said.

"We hope that our friends in Turkey provide the necessary explanations over this issue," he said. "We should not allow more misunderstandings in the region."

In addition, Ankara and Tehran are competing over influence in northern Iraq. Ankara has introduced troops there to chase Kurdish rebels who launch attacks into Turkey.

Sources say that this development has a strategic component in that Turkey intends to gradually build up its military presence including the construction of military bases in northern Iraq while Iran, which has its own Kurdish problem, also has considerable influence over Shi'ite Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Tehran also maintains a number of intelligence listening posts on the border with Iraq. Sources say, however, that Iran is being careful to avoid creating a confrontation with Turkey over northern Iraq and in fact wants closer cooperation over regional matters.

Just as Turkey continues to do things more compatible with the U.S., Iran has decided to look to the Russians as a counterbalance to the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey.

While the relationship between Moscow and Tehran has turned out to be one more out of convenience than trust, the two are increasing their nuclear cooperation and leveraging their energy ties against the Turkish-U.S. relationship.

Russia, for example, helped Iran build the Bushehr nuclear power plant that finally went operational earlier this month. In the years ahead, Russia intends to help build additional reactors in Iran.

In turn, this cooperation is sending a signal to the U.S. that in spite of their differences, their ties remain in place, even though it's more out of expediency and to their mutual economic and strategic interests.

Also, Russia is a prime supplier to Iran of much of its military equipment but, due to Western pressure to impose sanctions on Iran, reneged on supplying its S-300 anti-missile system due to western pressure, primarily from the U.S., in response to the U.N. sanctions that were imposed on Iran.

As a consequence, Tehran is taking the Kremlin to the international court in The Hague over a contract dispute of non-delivery. Even this approach is calculated to force Moscow to make a decision between coping with a heavy fine or supplying the missile system. Sources believe that, in the end, Moscow will decide to supply the missiles.

Given all this, sources say that the Kremlin is warily watching the Turkish-U.S. relationship, especially in terms of the ballistic missile defense strategy. All along, Moscow has felt that this European-based ABM system really is aimed at its strategic missiles.

For its part, the Kremlin has threatened to increase dramatically the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles unless it is included in any NATO missile system deployment decision. That has not happened.

Bro. James D Albright