Fwd: [MedicalConspiracies] UK "Faked" National Autism Data To Declare MMR Vaccine "Safe"

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From: Grannie <granniefox@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, Jun 17, 2010 at 11:21 AM
Subject: [MedicalConspiracies] UK "Faked" National Autism Data To Declare MMR Vaccine "Safe"
To: "1 Health_and_Healing@yahoogroups" <Health_and_Healing@yahoogroups.com>, "1 MedicalConspiracies@googlegrou" <MedicalConspiracies@googlegroups.com>, "1 Paranormal_Research@yahoogroup" <Paranormal_Research@yahoogroups.com>

UK "Faked" National Autism Data To Declare MMR Vaccine "Safe"

Posted on February 10, 2010 by johndstone
http://childhealthsafety.wordpress.com/2010/02/10/uksurveyautismlink/ NHS funded a survey report,
 assured the Statistics Authority of its validity as "national
statistics" when even the title of the report is not accurate and then
used it in the media and in public to bolster a policy position when
 not justified in doing so.

The explanation given of the calculation of "missed cases" appears to
be that of all potential cases of adults with ASCs identified by
telephone interview only 630 were selected for interview.  The
 researchers then estimated what they thought they would have found if
they interviewed all "potential cases" and multiplied up the 19 cases
found to arrive at 73.

Difficulties with this include the remarkably high numbers of adults
 identified as "potential" ASC cases - more than one in every two
adults - or half [ie. 2,854 adults out of a possible 5,329 eligible
for consideration].  This demonstrates the inaccuracy of the
probabilities the researchers assigned to potential ASC cases and in
 particular the bias to substantially over estimating the potential
numbers of ASC cases.

This is compounded by only 19 cases being found in those deemed most
likely to have an ASC and selected for interview.
 The estimate of 1 in 100 is also based on what appear  the very same
and remarkably inaccurate "probabilities" for selection devised by the
researchers.

This does not appear scientific.  It is also compounded by the same
 researchers claiming wrongfully that their results are for all adults
with ASCs when the documented facts  show the data was collected for
potential Asperger Syndrome cases only. [Added 16/Feb/2010]

Autism In Children Already Higher Than 1 in 100
 
A further problem with the survey is that two recent formal peer
reviewed journal published studies have found the rate in children is
not 1 in 100 but much higher.  A 2006 study [Baird] found a rate in
children of 1 in 85 and a recently published study by Baron-Cohen et
 al of 2005 data found a  rate of ASC's in children of 1 in 64 when
children not yet diagnosed were taken into account.  This gives a rate
of ASC in children 5 times higher than the 1 in 300 indicated by the
survey's results.  Neither of these studies are mentioned in the
 survey although members of the same team were involved in the
Baron-Cohen study, and Professor Baron-Cohen was a consultant to the
survey.

Impossible for Adult ASC Rate to Be Same as Childrens'

The authors inexplicably also fail to explain how their estimate of
 ASC rates in adults is the same as in children when their results show
ASC rates in adults and children are significantly different:-
       *       Aspergers Syndrome rates in adults on these results are
40% higher than in children;
     *       correspondingly Aspergers Syndrome cases in children
compared to adults would have to have substantially decreased for this
to be so;
   *       the rate of "classic" autism has leapt from zero in adults
 to 30% of ASC cases in children;
     *       adults with "classic" autism do not exist.

Identical Figures - A Remarkable Coincidence

The addition of the authors' hypothetical "estimated" cases provides
 exactly the same rate of 1 in 100 previously accepted for children.
This is despite the authors themselves warning the results should be
approached with caution because of the inaccuracies.  In such
circumstances if rates were the same then a similar figure might be
 expected but not exactly the same one.

The 1% figure for children was stated in pre publicity announcing the
start of survey: University of Leicester to lead audit of adults with
autism Eurekalert 9-May-2008. "Author bias" in favour of finding a
 pre-determined figure favourable to the study funder is a well-known
phenomenon in formal medical literature.

Breaching the codes of practice prohibiting the release of national
statistics for government policy purposes the UK National Health
 Service's publicity put out to the media on publication of the survey
focussed on claiming ASC rates in adults and children were identical
and that therefore the MMR vaccine did not cause ASCs.  This was not
 the stated purpose of the survey and the authors make no mention of
the vaccine-autism issue.  Media stories included: Autism rates back
MMR jab safety Michelle Roberts BBC Tuesday, 22 September 2009 and
Autism just as common in adults, so MMR is in the clear Sarah Boseley
 The Guardian Tuesday 22 September 2009.

Survey Does Not Live Up To Its Title

The survey was originally announced to establish the UK adult autism
rate for the first time by finding what were then being claimed to be
 "missed" adult cases of autism.
------------------------------  UK children are nearly 5 times more likely to have autistic conditions than adults according to the results of the first ever UK government survey to assess the numbers of adults with the condition: ["Autism Spectrum Disorders in adults living in households throughout England - Report from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007" The NHS Information Centre.]  But the British public were told instead that the survey shows rates in adults and children have always been the same so that that vaccines like MMR cannot be to blame for the increasing rates in children. The UK National Health Service funded the survey and made these claims.  Survey Authors Couldn't Find Enough Adult Autistics  There were early rumours in 2008 the authors could not find numbers of adult ASC cases matching numbers in children.  The survey failed to find a single case of an adult with "typical" or "classic" autism, found in approximately 30%  of  ASC children. "Typical" or "classic" autism is a type of ASC controversially claimed in 1998 might be associated with the MMR vaccine.  The authors also failed to find sufficient adult ASC cases overall - just 19 in 7,451 adults, being "higher functioning" ASCs - mainly Asperger's Syndrome. This represents an overall rate of just under 1 in 300 potential adult cases and not the officially claimed 1 in 100 for children.  The authors say that if they had carried out the survey differently they might have found four times as many adults - a further 46 or 47 ASC cases to come up with the same figure as for children.   Using already estimated data they claimed to be able estimate-on-the-estimate that the adult autism rate for the entire UK is the same as in children [1 in 100].  The survey's original design meant it was highly unlikely any cases would be "missed" and instead that cases would be over-estimated. This calls into question the authors' claims to be able to estimate such a large number of "missed" cases.   The survey design was broadly based.  An unlikely 72% of the adult  participants were selected as potentially having one of four mental illnesses [rather than just ASC]. The study was also designed so that those most likely to have an ASC were interviewed and those unlikely to were excluded.  Whilst designed to estimate the maximum number, the survey as published was also based solely on data for Asperger's Syndrome from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007 and not other ASCs.  That is not what the NHS has been telling the media and public. The study authors stated in their prior May 2008 news release that there were to be two surveys in their study, the second to cover other ASCs: University of Leicester to lead audit of adults with autism Eurekalert 9-May-2008. But neither the media nor the public were told by the NHS that the second survey had not been carried out and that no data from it was included in the final survey report.  It is not credible that for none of the other psychiatric conditions in the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007 it seems was it considered necessary to "estimate" "missed" cases - and particularly not an unusually high 3 out of four cases.  The data used is the identical data collected from the identical subjects by the same people at the same time as part of and using the identical study design.  And therefore also the prevalence of ASCs in adults cannot be 1% in any event and also cannot be the same as in children [also contrary to the public claims made by the NHS].  On the basis of the results so far the NHS would have had to claim the prevalence of ASCs in adults is substantially greater than in children and it would have to explain how that could be.  Details of how the missed Aspergers cases were estimated were not provided.  None appear in the survey report to show how the authors calculated this to arrive at an estimated overall adult ASC prevalence figure of 1 in 100.  The NHS also needs to explain of how it came to issue a news release claiming this survey was of the prevalence of adults with ASCs when it is not.  This appears to show that the--------------------------
Sheri Nakken, R.N., MA, Hahnemannian Homeopath	
Vaccination Information & Choice Network,
vaccinedangers@gmail.comhttp://vaccinationdangers.wordpress.comhttp://www.wellwithin1.com/vaccineclass.htmhttp://www.wellwithin1.com/homeo2.htm voicemail US 530-740-0561 Vaccines -  Vaccine Dangers On-Line course -  Homeopathy On-Line course -   

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