Saturday, November 2, 2013

For whom the business would multiply? Equities post biggest weekly gain in 3 weeks on FII inflows!Slowing economy may force Chidambaram to wield budget knife. Chidambaram manages it once again and Govt hopes to pass insurance, other Bills in winter session. महंगाई की मार धनी लोगों पर ज्यादा: पीएचडी

For whom the business would multiply? Equities post biggest weekly gain in 3 weeks on FII inflows!Slowing economy may force Chidambaram to wield budget knife.

Chidambaram manages it once again and Govt hopes to pass insurance, other Bills in winter session.

महंगाई की मार धनी लोगों पर ज्यादा: पीएचडी

Palash Biswas

For whom the business would multiply?Equities post biggest weekly gain in 3 weeks on FII inflows!

The imminent danger ahead, so called slowing economy may force Chidambaram to wield budget knife.

भारतीय शेयर बाजार इस समय नई ऊंचाइयां कायम कर रहा है पर वित्त मंत्री पीचिदंबरम ने निवेशकों को अति उत्साह से बचने की सलाह दी है। अर्थव्यवस्था का खराब दौर समाप्त होने का संकेत देते हुये वित्त मंत्री पी. चिदंबरम ने शुक्रवार को कहा कि इस बार अच्छी फसल होगी और सोने का आयात कम रहने तथा निर्यात बढ़ने से परेशानी का सबब बना चालू खाते का घाटा (कैड) कम होकर 60 अरब डॉलर रह जायेगा।

उन्होंने कहा, ''प्रमुख बुनियादी उद्योगों की वृद्धि .. बेहतर मानसून और बढ़ते निर्यात से आर्थिक वृद्धि के लिये अच्छे सकेत हैं। लेकिन अभी भी कई तरह की चुनौतियां हैं, जिसमें मुद्रास्फीति और निवेश में सुधार लाना सबसे महत्वपूर्ण हैं।''

वित्त मंत्री ने यहां एक संवाददाता सम्मेलन को संबोधित करते हुये कहा, ''मेरा मानना है कि निवेश के मामले में भी बेहतर संकेत हैं। हमारा पूरा विश्वास है कि राजकोषीय घाटे को तय दायरे में रखने के लिये रिजर्व बैंक ने जो कदम उठाये हैं और हमने जो उपाय किये हैं उससे अंतत मुद्रास्फीति नरम पड़ेगी।''

चिदंबरम ने इस दौरान नये निवेश प्रस्तावों को सरकार का पूरा समर्थन देने की मंशा जाहिर की और कहा कि औद्योगिक घरानों को नकदी को दबाकर नहीं बैठना चाहिये। वित्त मंत्री ने कंपनियों को निवेश शुरू करने को कहा।

इस कारपोरेट गुलाम भारत सरकार की जनप्रतिबद्धता का अंदाजा इसीसे लगाइये कि प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह शनिवार को ओडिशा और आंध्र प्रदेश के तूफान प्रभावित इलाकों का दौरा अन्य व्यस्तता के कारण टाल दिया। प्रधानमंत्री दोनों राज्यों के तूफान प्रभावित इलाकों का हवाई सर्वेक्षण करने वाले थे। दोनों राज्यों में 12 अक्टूबर को चक्रवाती तूफान पेलिन का व्यापक असर पड़ा था।

प्रधानमंत्री कार्यालय के सूत्रों ने बताया, 'व्यस्तता की वजह से पीएम का दौरा स्थगित कर दिया गया।' दौरे के दौरान प्रधानमंत्री प्रभावित राज्यों को वित्तीय सहायता दिए जाने के संबंध में घोषणा करने वाले थे।

पिछले महीने आए चक्रवात के असर की समीक्षा के दौरान प्रधानमंत्री ने ओडिशा और आंध्र प्रदेश सरकारों के साथ-साथ राहत एजेंसियों के प्रबंधन की भी सराहना की थी।

अगले बजट में पूरे सत्यानाश की तैयारी है। आर्थिक नीतियां कारपोरेट हितों के मुताबिक तय होती हैं। अब बजट कैसे बनना है,कारपोरेट इंडिया के इस सर्वेक्षण से अंदाजा लगा सकें तो लगा लीजिये।

उद्योग संगठन पीएचडी चैंबर ऑफ कॉमर्स ऐंड इंडस्ट्री ने एक रिपोर्ट में कहा है कि मौजूदा त्योहारी सीजन में महंगाई की मार आम लोगों के बजाय धनी लोगों पर ज्यादा देखने को मिल रही है। संगठन के मुताबिक धनवानों के इस्तेमाल वाले उत्पादों के दाम ज्यादा बढ़े हैं।

पीएचडी चैंबर ऑफ कॉमर्स ऐंड इंडस्ट्री के एग्जेक्युटिव डायरेक्टर सौरभ सान्याल ने कहा, 'थोक मूल्य सूचकांक के आधार पर कीमतों में बढ़ोतरी का असर धनी वर्ग पर ज्यादा, लगभग 9.3 फीसदी आंका गया जबकि गरीब वर्ग के लिए यह लगभग 8.4 फीसदी रहा।'

संगठन की रिपोर्ट में नतीजा निकाला है कि मौजूदा त्योहारी सीजन में खपत के चुनिंदा मूल उत्पादों में धनी वर्ग पर 9.3 फीसदी की दर से ज्यादा असर रहा जबकि गरीब वर्ग के लिए यह 8.4 फीसदी से अपेक्षाकृत कम रहा। इसके अनुसार ज्यादा आय वाले परिवारों द्वारा खपत किए जाने वाले सामान की औसत महंगाई दर 9.3 फीसदी रही है। इन वस्तुओं में फल, दाल, काजू गिरि, सिगरेट, कार, परफ्यूम और एलपीजी शामिल है। वहीं आम लोगों के काम आने वाले सात प्रमुख उत्पादों चावल, आलू, चारा, बीड़ी, साइकल, केरोसीन आदि की महंगाई दर 8.4 फीसदी रही। सान्याल ने कहा कि सप्लाई संबंधी बाधाओं को हटाकर ही देश में महंगाई पर काबू पाया जा सकता है।

(Reuters) - The finance minister may have to slice at least 200 billion rupees from government spending to prevent a budget blow-out, which could threaten to send the country's credit rating into "junk" status, two ministry officials said.

P. Chidambaram will make a final decision on whether to go ahead with the cuts at the end of October, when he gets an update on revenue collections, the officials, who have direct knowledge of the process, said.

If he goes ahead with cuts, the minister would likely focus on areas of discretionary spending but keep programmes, such as food subsidies, in place as state and national elections near, these officials said.

Chidambaram, who last year oversaw cuts worth over 1 trillion rupees, is aiming to prevent the budget for the fiscal year to March 2014 from stretching beyond a deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP.

A budget blow-out would be a concern for credit ratings agencies. India has the lowest investment grade rating and Standard & Poor's maintains a negative outlook. A cut to "junk" status would raise its borrowing costs and could trigger further panic on financial markets after the rupee fell as much as 20 percent this year and the economy posted its weakest growth in years.

The officials said that Chidambaram had briefed federal officials on September 17 on the need for prudent spending, even though in public he has said that the budget remains on target.

"With oil subsidies up by about 300 billion rupees, the government may have to cut expenditure by around 200 billion rupees in addition to usual savings of around 300 billion rupees at the end of the year," said a senior finance ministry official.

Doubts that economic growth and tax receipts will match budget assumptions, and slow government asset sales also pointed to the need for spending cuts, the officials said.

However, a spokesman for the ministry said there were no plans for cuts at present and that "departments have been instructed to manage within the allocated funds".

EYE ON ELECTIONS

Fearing defeat in state elections likely due in November and in national polls due by May next year, India's government has balked at cutting its hefty oil subsidy bill and recently introduced a costly food subsidy scheme targetted at the rural poor who are the ruling Congress party's core voters.

Last month, it deferred a plan to raise diesel prices by close to 10 percent in one go that could have sharply cut the oil subsidy burden, estimated at over 900 billion rupees for the current fiscal year - nearly 40 percent more than budgeted.

The government also introduced subsidised grain to 67 percent of the 1.21 billion population and has set in motion a substantial revision in salaries and pensions for almost 8 million government workers.

To try to keep the budget on target, Chidambaram has already introduced small-bore austerity measures, such as a ban on new hiring and meetings in five star hotels, plus travel restrictions. The finance ministry estimates the measures will save about 100 billion rupees this fiscal year.

Chidambaram has still to identify the specific areas to be hit if new cuts are agreed, the officials said, adding they expected the picture to become clearer by the end of this month when they hope to have revised revenue estimates.

REVENUE SLOWING

While government officials insist that tax collection targets will be met, analysts say the effects of slower economic growth will automatically hit revenues.

The budget had banked on tax collections this fiscal year growing nearly 19 percent. In the first five months of the fiscal year between April and August, net tax receipts stood at 20.8 percent of the full-year target. By August last year, receipts were stronger, standing at 22.7 percent of the target.

However, tax revenues tend to pick up from the second half of the fiscal year, finance ministry officials say.

There are also doubts as to whether the government can raise the 540 billion rupees it had planned from share sales in the current fiscal year when turmoil in financial markets has already derailed plans for stake sales in some state-run firms.

"Tax collections are under pressure. The manufacturing sector has slowed down dramatically, which means excise and corporate income tax will be lower," said Pronab Sen, chairman of the National Statistical Commission, the government body which monitors macro economic data.

Some finance ministry officials fear nominal GDP growth this year may slip to around 11 percent compared with a budget projection of 13.4 percent, making it tougher to meet the fiscal deficit target as a percentage of GDP.

SADDLED WITH SUBSIDIES

Last week, India's oil minister shied away from introducing comprehensive energy subsidy cuts, instead calling on his countrymen to embrace car pooling, buses and cycling as well as staggered working hours in a bid to curb fuel consumption.

"The oil subsidy alone could push the fiscal deficit in excess of 5.0 percent," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, director of public finance at India Ratings & Research, an Indian arm of Fitch Ratings.

The rating agency said the government would need to hike diesel prices by nearly 16 percent from October to keep the subsidy within budget.

While a headline-grabbing set of spending cuts is unlikely to be announced to assuage nervous investors and credit rating agencies, officials say measures will be put in place over the coming months if new data shows continued weakness.

The size of spending cuts in part will be known only in February's budget. The full extent of last year's budget cuts were made public only last month.

"You do not need to announce the cut. You send instructions to the financial advisers and stop releasing funds," said Sen, adding the actual spending cuts could be visible by year end. (Editing by David Chance and Neil Fullick)

A spate of positive data in recent weeks and expectations of a bumper crop augured well for economic growth, finance minister P Chidambaram said on Friday, but cautioned that inflation and investment remained a challenge.

Chidambaram, who held a news conference after the stock market scaled a record high, said the government would be able to contain the current account deficit at $60 billion or below. This is lower than the FM's earlier estimate of $70 billion and should help calm the financial markets. Times of India reports.

The widening of the current account deficit had hurt the rupee, prompting the government and the central bank to announce a series of measures to restore order in the financial markets.

The finance minister also vowed to adhere to the "red line" on the fiscal deficit. The CAD is effectively a measure of the amount of net capital flows from abroad that an economy depends on, whether in the form of borrowings or investment.

While he refrained from coming to any definitive conclusion about possible green shoots of recovery in the economy, Chidambaram said several businessmen had told him that they could see "green shoots" in several sectors. He urged India Inc to start investing and not sit on idle cash to help in reviving growth.

"Core sector growth...strong monsoon and healthy exports augur well for economic growth. There are still many challenges, most important being inflation and reviving investment," Chidambaram said while detailing the bright spots in the economy.

"But I think there will be green shoots even in investment. We are confident that the measures taken by the RBI and our own measures at maintaining fiscal discipline will eventually bring about a moderation of inflation," he said. Government data on Thursday showed the key infrastructure sector output grew by 8% in September, its fastest pace of expansion in 11 months raising hopes of a recovery in industrial growth. Exports have gathered pace and the steps taken by the government have helped in containing gold imports.

Growth has slowed to a decade's low of 5% in 2013-14 and is expected to be on similar lines in the current fiscal year. Experts say a sharp rebound in agriculture growth which is expected to be above 5% should provide a boost to the rural economy and have a positive impact on overall economic expansion.

The finance minister was also confident of meeting the fiscal deficit and the disinvestment targetset for the current fiscal year.

In the first half of the 2013-14 fiscal year, the fiscal deficit has touched 76% of the full year budget estimate of Rs 5.43 lakh crore.

Chidambaram manages it once again and Govt hopes to pass insurance, other Bills in winter session!Even as the keenly watched HSBC manufacturing PMI on Friday showed India's manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in October, finance minister P Chidambaram found imminent green shoots in the economy that he hoped would multiply with businesses not sitting on cash but investing it. On a day the BSE Sensex closed at its third straight record closing high of 21,196.81 points, the minister re-estimated the current account deficit (CAD) for FY14 to be $60 billion or even less (compared with $70 billion estimated earlier), helped by "severely compressed" gold imports and the pick-up in exports.

The government expects to be able to steer the insurance Bill through Parliament in the winter session.Indian Express reports.

Chidambaram refrained from making any fresh projection about economic growth for the fiscal (the government's official estimate for FY14 GDP growth is now 5-5.5% and the RBI earlier this week cut its projection to 5%) but said the "satisfactory" 8% growth shown by key infrastructure industries in September, along with good exports and a good monsoon augured well for the economy. Analysts were, however, unconvinced about whether the demand slump in the economy has indeed bottomed out.Financial Express reports.

Further, Financial Express reports:Provisional data from stock exchanges showed FIIs net purchased $30.24 million worth of Indian shares on Friday.

Indian equities saw the biggest weekly gain in three weeks on strong buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), better- than- expected corporate earnings and stability in global equity markets.

Gaining for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, the Sensex advanced 32.29 points or 0.15% from its previous close to end at 21,196.81 and the Nifty gained 8.05 points or 0.13% to end at 6,307.20. The 30-share Sensex jumped nearly 2.5% whereas the 50-share Nifty moved up by 2.7% during the week that saw benchmark indices move back to levels seen three years ago.

The Sensex climbed to a new high of 21,293.88 and the Nifty closed above 6,300 for the first time since November 2010.

Provisional data from stock exchanges showed FIIs net purchased $30.24 million worth of Indian shares on Friday, taking the buying spree to 21 straight sessions.

On Thursday, overseas funds net bought $290 million of Indian equities — the biggest net inflow since September 20, official data showed.

After withdrawing $3.61 billion from Indian equities during June to August, FIIs have bought nearly $5 billion since the beginning of September. For the year, foreigners have bought over $16 billion – the second highest among 10 Asian markets tracked by Bloomberg.

The gains were largely led by value buying in banking and interest rate sensitive stocks after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced liquidity enhancing measures for banks, while raising key policy rate that broadly matched market expectations.

Bank Nifty jumped 6.7% this week, while BSE Realty, BSE Capital Goods, BSE Consumer Durables, BSE Metals, and BSE Auto ended up 3-6%.

ICICI Bank was the top gainer this week, rising almost 11% to a near four-month high followed by State Bank of India (9.4%) that also rose to its highest level since July 15. Maruti Suzuki (8.6%), Mahindra & Mahindra (6.6%) and Bharti Airtel (6.6%) completed the list of top five gainers.

The finance minister promised further government efforts to prop up growth by clearing more stalled projects and giving a boost to the manufacturing sector. He said the government will try to get the long-pending insurance amendment Bill, which seeks to raise foreign direct investment cap in the sector to 49% from 26%, passed in the forthcoming winter session of Parliament. The draft amendments to the proposed Direct Taxes Code have been finalised and would be placed before the Cabinet for approval soon, he added.

"Today I can say that CAD (for FY14) is likely to be perhaps $60 billion or less," he said, revising the previous estimate of $70 billion. CAD stood at 4.8% of GDP ($87.8 billion) in FY13, an all-time high.

"Most parties, including the principal opposition have assured me of their support to it," finance minister P Chidambaram told reporters on Friday. He added that the government hoped to pass as many as 12 legislative Bills in the session, which would be the last full session before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Chidambaram also expressed confidence that the worst may be over for the Indian economy. The minister made these comments after the stock markets closed at a lifetime high on Friday.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex touched 21,293.88 in intra-day trade before closing at 21,196.81. "The markets seem to be very happy. (They) seem to welcome the RBI and government measures. But I would caution investors against excessive exuberance," Chidambaram said.

The minister said the Reserve Bank's decision to raise the short-term lending (repo) rate by 0.5 per cent in two instalments was right. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's steps needed to be "understood in the context of high inflation and stabilisation of the depreciating currency. The RBI has reversed the tight liquidity conditions and MSF hike in two successive policies and we are now returning to a normal policy", he said. These were Chidambaram's first comments after the RBI raised rates.

The insurance Bill which seeks to raise the foreign direct investment ceiling in the insurance sector to 49 per cent has been with the Rajya Sabha since 2008. The Cabinet had approved it again in October 2012. The standing committee on Finance had, however, suggested that the cap should be kept at 26 per cent. The government is now understood to be considering a proposal to raise the FDI cap to 49 per cent without an increase in voting rights. Passage of the Bill is expected to bring additional capital for the insurance sector, and help India finalise free trade pacts with the EU.

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No decision on CHOGM yet, says Chidambaram

B. KOLAPPAN

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram spoke to reporters after meeting DMK chief M. Karunanidhi at his residence

Denying reports that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would participate in the Commonwealth Heads of State Meeting (CHOGM) in Sri Lanka, Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Saturday said no final decision had been taken on the issue.

Talking to reporters after meeting DMK leader M. Karunanidhi at his Gopalapuram residence, Mr. Chidambaram said media reports about the Prime Minister's visit to Sri Lanka were incorrect.

The meeting between the two leaders assumed significance in the face of Mr. Karunanidhi's warning that India's participation would cost the Congress party dearly.

Mr. Chidambaram said the Congress party never refuted the human rights violations that took place in the last leg of the civil war between the Sri Lankan Army and the LTTE.

"That is why nations across the world appreciated the stand of India, supporting the resolutions against Sri Lanka in the United Nations," he said.

Mr. Chidambaram also condemned the brutal killing of Isaipriya, a journalist and LTTE cadre, allegedly by the Sri Lankan Army.

"I also watched the clippings of the video and I believe the contents are true. It was a brutal and merciless act. The Sri Lankan government has the responsibility to identify and punish those who are behind the act," he said.