Date: 20 February 2011 08:55
By Bob Rigg
Egypt, for thirty years an obelisk amidst the shifting political sands of the Middle East, hasignited a revolution at home, unleashing the spirit of revolution throughout the Middle East. The fundamental questions that have been raised about democracy are resonating throughout the world, including in those developed countries where democracy has come to mean the unquestioned dominance of political and corporate elites.
Although the predominantly youthful protesters do not represent any established political parties or interest groups, they have precipitated a political chain reaction tearing apart the enforced consensus at the heart of Egyptian society. Although most would probably identify with the dominant Muslim faith, their commitment to the revolution is inspired, not by ideological or religious dogma, but by their opposition to top-down autocracy and their commitment to popular democracy.
By challenging the established domestic political order, Egyptian protesters are also questioning foreign policy shibboleths such as the cornerstone alliance between Egypt, the USA, and Israel. The US has generously rewarded Egypt with US$1.3 billion in annual military aid alone. The protesters are also challenging the foundation of US and Western support for repressive regimes throughout the Middle East. Israel can be included amongst such regimes if one takes account of its policies in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Iran's President was unwise enough to loudly praise the Egyptian demonstrators for their Islamic zeal, but has in the meantime seen fit to prohibit Iranian demonstrations in support of the Egyptian protests. In the meantime members of Iran's parliament have called for the execution of the leaders of Iran's opposition movement. Undeterred by all this, Iran's protesters are continuing with their demonstrations.
There has also been persistent unrest in Bahrain, Libya, Djibouti, Yemen, Jordan, and Sudan. The Saudi government, already enraged by the proposed termination of US aid to its close ally Mubarak, went so far as to undertake to provide an equivalent amount of aid to Mubarak's government. Now the Saudis are anxious that the bacillus of revolution might find its way into their Kingdom via the causeway linking their country with Bahrain, where a Sunni royalty rules over a Shia majority – a potential powder keg. The Saudis have threatened to intervene if the situation gets out of hand. If they do so, unrest could spread to other countries in the region including even Saudi Arabia itself, where disrespect for democracy and human rights has been a given for decades now.
In the Gaza Strip Hamas publicly declared its support for the Egyptian insurrection, while prohibiting public demonstrations supporting it. Not by coincidence the unpopular PLO Executive Committee has just resigned, calling for new elections. The PLO has recently been mired in damaging controversies which seriously undermined its standing in the community. By resigning in haste, it pre-empted popular protest inspired by events in Egypt. In Jordan the Palestinians, who have long been denied equal rights although they are a majority, are now vigorously objecting to this. If Jordan's long-standing monarchy were overthrown, the Middle Eastern chess board would change overnight.
From day one of the insurrection onwards, Israel's government was in a state of almost uncontrolled panic at the possibility that Mubarak might be replaced by a Muslim government. Binyamin Netanyahu's public statements in the days before Mubarak fell were full of bluster and belligerence, expressing a paranoid fear of the Muslim Brotherhood's involvement in a future Egyptian government. The recent visit by Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, vainly sought to reassure these key allies that things are as they used to be, when all can see that irreversible change is sweeping everything before it.
The Middle East as we have known it in recent decades – corrupt, dictatorial, and frequently in the pocket of the West – is already rocking on its foundations. Egypt has become an uncertain variable in the Mid East equation. Even other regional states not changing government in the short term will be pressured into aligning their domestic and foreign policies with public opinion, to avoid sharing Mubarak's fate.
Recent surveys of regional opinion have shown that US and Israeli policies in particular are highly unpopular. The few Muslim leaders who have stood up to the West are widely respected. Regional despots who see their hold on power as undermined by President Obama's support for the Egyptian revolution are unsettled and nettled. An overseas Saudi publication recently wrote: "Obama has become a liability to all his Arab allies. Israel doesn't share this view but does urge rethinking of Obama's policies in the Middle East."
A new constellation of intergovernmental relationships will slowly evolve, both within the region and with external players. The US, the EU, Russia, and China – the key external players in this oil and gas rich region which is so heavily reliant on the strategic Suez Canal – will all have to brace themselves for a political and strategic sea change. They will no longer be in absolute control, and will have to trim their sails to the unpredictable wind changes of regional public opinion. The Arab world has become a major player on the world stage.
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