It is my humble estimate that the statement of Prof. chowdhury is accepted by hardly 20% of our literate population - BNP + AL supporters = 75% , 5 to 10% uncared for and 10 to 20% may accept this as people with concious mind having love for our common people.
Dr. Abul Barakat being an economist manifested all the unspeakable and unthinkable to the AL's election constitution so that they can led people with falso hope and greater aspiration that was impracticle and fallacious. This economist went far too much than many of his colleagues who generally misguide the nation.
Today when AL is in trouble with its professed economic agenda, Mr. Abul Barakat has no explanation and no remedy to their rescue.
We may see another version of Abul Barakat before the next election who will muster with yet more rhetorics with flashy ideas to churn votes for BNP.
A greater majority of AL supporters do not see any wrongdoing or any failure in AL's performance that is the worst think happening to the nation and to AL as well.
Mr. Chowdhury should come forward more often analysing current issues.
From: Hares Sayed <hares.sayed@yahoo.com>
Subject: [Diagnose] FW: [bdresearchers] How Bangladesh Became Captive
To: "Safeschool" <diagnose@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Thursday, 10 February, 2011, 6:40 PM
Prof Chowdhury's comments, "Bangladesh is facing serious crises in crucial areas such as, severe gas and electricity shortage (which continues to threaten daily life and investment), rising inflation, unemployment, rampant corruption, political murder, campus riot, law and order deterioration, and climate change effect. Instead of collaborating or working to address these critical issues, the ladies of the land persist on grappling for things like establishing or reestablishing whose predecessor were more relevant, gaining or regaining their personal property and legal protection rights, naming or renaming the national airport, writing or rewriting history books, and most importantly harassing each other by inciting riots or by using state machineries to confirm one's superiority. All of these heinous acts have come at a tremendous cost in terms of property and human lives, and there is no end in sight for such tit for tat actions. Whereas, economists believe that with better governance, Bangladesh economy could grow at a respectable rate of 7 percent or even more per year, which would indeed go a long way in reducing its poverty level." |
This one paragraph tells all. Price hike of essential commodities, crisis of gas, potable water and electricity, severe food shortage, law and order situation, manmade stock market crash making the situation uncontrollable. "Price of rice is now Tk 35 to Tk 40 as the Awami League is in power. But the price would have increased to Tk 80 to Tk 90 per kg had the BNP stayed power," PM said in Parliament yesterday. We don't want to hear the blaming each other anymore. But general people want to have a better life, a better future for their next generation. A holistic planning and implementation of that plan is the key for the future of the country.
What will happen with the country in coming years can be viewed from various published data by the Bangladesh government agencies. Although most of the information are not valid, such as there is a severe food shortage in Bangladesh and government is trying to buy food from international market. Based on 2010 data I tried to see what will happen in 2030 in Bangladesh taking the same rate of population growth, rate agricultural land loss and per capita food consumption rate at current level.
Bangladesh in 2010:
Population: 144 million
Population Growth: 1.5%
Cultivable Land: 11 million hector
Land loss due to infrastructural development: 77,000 hectors/year
Food Growth: 26 millions MT
Food Demand: 23 millions MT
Trade Imbalance: Exceeds $10.0 billion
Bangladesh in 2030:
Population: Exceeds 200 million
Cultivable Land: 8 million hector (due to loss of land referred above)
Food Growth: 19 million MT
Food Demand: 31 million MT
Cost for Food Import: $5.3 billion (2010 cost)
Does not matter how government tries to grow more food but there will always be a limit on that and we will be obligated to buy food from international market. After 2008 in February 2011 the food price (especially rice) has jumped exponentially and based on information by various international organizations this crisis of food shortage will raise further. Other issue is serious for Bangladesh is that expatriates are sending over $10 billion a year to Bangladesh, but the recent findings are that we are losing that market also. It also demand immediate attention.
Therefore, a holistic planning and implementation of that plan is the key for the future of the country. No more blame games. All party should work together for the future of the nation. Some of the approaches recommended by the American Association of Bangladeshi Engineers and Architects, Inc., are provided below:
- Industrial Sector Improvement: Reduce dependency on importing products to meet the domestic needs. Conduct research and identify industrial sectors having export potentials. Develop controlled market -be master in those identified sectors with quality products, efficient production with the ability to control the global market segment.
- Energy Sector Development and Improvement: Planned exploration of natural resources and adding power to the national grid with a goal of electrification of the whole nation.
- Human Resource Development: Train human resources to meet the demand of manpower shortage in various countries; improvement of diplomatic relations to open new markets of manpower export --increase the foreign currency remittance.
- Agriculture Development & Water Resources: Planned agricultural development, modern irrigation, use of technology for maximum food growth and minimize food wastage.
- Create atmosphere to encourage NRBs to invest in Bangladesh. Use their expertise.
- Provide opportunities to grow IT and Biotechnological industries and use the expertise to take the advantage of western countries out-sourcing requirements.
- Trade Balance: Reduction of trade gap: reduction of import and increase of export. Impose import tax and provide subsidies to viable industries for national industrial growth.
Regards
Hares Sayed
In 1970, the population of the present-day Pakistan was 55 million, while the population of what is today known as Bangladesh was 75 million.
Today, the population of Pakistan is over 160 million. Bangladesh claims its population to be 150 million, though both the countries have almost identical birth and mortality rates. How is it possible that 55 million became 160 million, whilst 75 million stays only at 150 million and also, is it possible to complete census in 7 days in a country, like Bangladesh?
I will appreciate a clarification from one who knows this subject well. Thanks.
Dear Professor Mahfuz R. Chowdhury,
You touched on very important issues. The points you raised are equally important, however, your observation and analysis lags facts and scientific basis (don't take this comment as negative or personal rather take it as a reviewer's comment). Since you are an active thinker in this area I would like you to look into the most probable factors (among the multiple possible factors with varying wattage) that lead to this current situation which is ofcourse not healthy. It seems that the political community and the short term administrator (Fakruddin care taker) have/had no real representation of the general public of the country as a whole which is a danger for the wellbeing of the general public.
At this point in time, various models of democracy are coming to surface. Some of them, particularly representative form of democracy, evolved over 100 years of practice where citizens are actively participating (not the civil society, which is recognized as a representative of interest group but not the citizens) in forming the governing bodies and running the country. This type of democracy is more productive in terms of providing the service and looking after the wellbeing of the general public. There are tons of research materials out there on this subject, which you may review to enrich your article in terms of quantitative facts to be more specific. The other form, i would call it notoriously evil, is the participation form of democracy (this term may be different in different text books) where civil society are the key component in forming the government and running the country.
Regarding democratic process of independence, there are lots of research papers talking about the definition and interpretation of democratic process of independence. You may do some literature search on this subject and interpret the independence of Bangladesh in that context- which will have some scientific basis and facts.
I hope you will continue research in the area and keep us educated with facts and numbers.
From: Chowdhury1@aol.com
To: bdresearchers@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2011 16:45:21 -0500
Subject: [bdresearchers] How Bangladesh Became Captive
How Bangladesh Became Captive
Professor Mahfuz R. Chowdhury
The rule of Bangladesh, a country of 150 million people, has pretty much turned into family affairs. The center of power now clearly revolves around two prominent families – one is of former civilian authoritarian ruler and the other is of former military autocrat. Both families currently lead the country's two dominant parties and pursue the same goal – grabbing state power by any means and using that power to promote their interests. They exercise similar autocratic rule in their parties and government, when in power, as their respective predecessors once did. They have been alternating state power since 1991. But when one family gains state powers the other consistently opposes everything that it does and takes up deadly agitation to bring down the government. The great irony is that they are doing all this in the name of democracy, and the country seems utterly paralyzed to change course.
Bangladesh began its liberation movement to separate from Pakistan through a democratic process. After independence in 1971, the country flirted with democracy for a while but quickly abandoned the democratic process by imposing one party rule. One party rule was supplanted by military rule after the assassination in 1975 of the authoritarian ruler, who also played a pivotal role in the country's independence struggle. The military ruler himself was a popular freedom fighter and gave his government a democratic label by luring the disgruntled politicians to establish his political party. But his autocratic government also fell like a house of cards following his own assassination in 1981. Then, another military ruler took over and perpetrated his autocratic rule for nine years and quit only when the nation's democratic forces mobilized an all out movement.
Many have come to believe that, following the election of 1990, the country has re-established democracy. Although the democratic process is in place, the reality may be somewhat different. Having gone through various changes and alignments over the years, the country's politics is now firmly under control of two political parties - Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party. These were the parties of the two most celebrated leaders; one who led the nation to freedom fight and the other who led the fight itself. When they were slain, for lack of intra-party democracy, no leader could emerge from within the party as the popular choice of rank-and-file party members to replace them. As a compromise, one party then inducted the daughter and the other the wife of their supreme leaders to take the party leaderships, though both were thought to be inept.
These ladies, by taking full advantage of popular sentiments for their slain predecessors and by also getting the needed support from unscrupulous politicians, assumed total dictatorial power within their parties. They determine their parties' electoral nominations and are brutal in their approach. Earlier, they sacked their parties' well admired Secretary Generals, deprived the independent minded party stalwarts from holding any party or government posts, and in one extreme case, even compelled the President of the country to leave the office in disgrace shortly after inaugural because he tried to rise above party politics. Obviously, they find themselves invincible and others treat them as permanent political fixtures as well. So the election is mainly to decide which lady to rule. There are also ominous signs that their young sons are being groomed to replace them in due course.
Bangladesh is facing serious crises in crucial areas such as, severe gas and electricity shortage (which continues to threaten daily life and investment), rising inflation, unemployment, rampant corruption, political murder, campus riot, law and order deterioration, and climate change effect. Instead of collaborating or working to address these critical issues, the ladies of the land persist on grappling for things like establishing or reestablishing whose predecessor were more relevant, gaining or regaining their personal property and legal protection rights, naming or renaming the national airport, writing or rewriting history books, and most importantly harassing each other by inciting riots or by using state machineries to confirm one's superiority. All of these heinous acts have come at a tremendous cost in terms of property and human lives, and there is no end in sight for such tit for tat actions. Whereas, economists believe that with better governance, Bangladesh economy could grow at a respectable rate of 7 percent or even more per year, which would indeed go a long way in reducing its poverty level.
The world is quite aware how these ladies' power capturing maneuvers had brought the country to the brink of anarchy in early 2007. Then, a military backed care-taker government tried to deport both of them, failing which it held them under house arrest. The same government also initiated badly needed reforms in structuring political parties, administering election, enacting power decentralization, and making the judiciary independent. Although its actions received immediate praise, it soon had to give in under tremendous pressures from both inside and outside.
In the end, by arranging an election the care-taker government was obliged to hand over power to the lady who won the election. Yet, hopes were raised that after the election the long awaited reforms that were initiated would somehow take hold. But apparently nothing has changed and no true reform has materialized. Both ladies are back to their old politics again, and continue to fight to preserve their personal interests. Bangladesh has thus became captive to the two politically dynastic families, and the impact of their family feud is being felt almost everywhere. Some observers believe that the situation cannot go on like this, so the country would inevitably face another upheaval. But if that were to happen its outcome remains very much uncertain.
(The author teaches Economics at Long Island University and SUNY Farmingdale, and publishes articles on issues concerning Bangladesh and developing economies)
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