2014 polls: Why a third term for Manmohan Singh cannot be ruled out if Congress comes to power
By Soma Banerjee, ET Bureau | 22 Sep, 2013, 10.55AM IST
Anyone who rules out a third term forManmohan Singh as PM does not understand politics," a cabinet minister and a close aide of the prime minister told ET Magazine.
The minister made this statement when asked to comment on Singh's recent statement that he was willing to work in any "position under Rahul Gandhiji" in the party, leading many to believe that Singh was finally calling it quits after the end of this term. While Singh's statement added to the clamour for anointing Gandhi as Congress's PM candidate his message between the lines was lost in the din. "It is clear that it is eitherRahul Gandhi or him if the UPA gets a third term," a close aide of the PM says.
Sanjaya Baru, a former media adviser to Singh who has worked closely on some very important issues like the nuclear deal with the US, says it would be difficult to rob the 80-yearold PM of his position if the Congress was to seek a mandate. "There would be no reason not to make him PM again, unless he chooses not to take the job," he says.
"If the Congress goes to the people seeking a mandate in the name of its performance under UPA-1 and UPA-2, then a victory would be a vote of confidence for Dr Singh, like it was in 2009," he adds.
It's All in the Numbers
The Congress message is out there in its posters that depict the "troika": Sonia Gandhi as the Congress party president, PM Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi, vice-president of the Congress. While Sonia will remain kingmaker, the toss-up between Rahul and Singh as PM (if there is a UPA III) would depend on the numbers.
Congress strategists are clear that Rahul will be pushed for the job only if the Congress comes back with a thumping majority, which looks unlikely as of today. A majority at the ballot box would also be a vote in favour of Rahul and his plan to resurrect the party. Going by the weak seat numbers projected by news channels (136 by one) for the Congress, it will require numerous alliances if the UPA has to stake claim for a third term. This is where Singh comes in.
He was after all the only consensual candidate who does not pose a threat to most alliance partners, points out the former cabinet minister in Singh's team. Singh's statement on Rahul to reporters on their way back from the G-20 summit in the Russian city of St Petersburg was more of a message to the PM aspirants within the Congress ranks whose names have been popping up every time there is a crisis, another minister in Singh's cabinet said. Whilefinance minister P Chidambaram's competence is his USP for the job, AK Antony's die-hard loyalty to the Gandhi family and his personal integrity make him a possible alternative to Singh within Lutyen Delhi's power corridors.
But Singh, whose political acumen was once a matter of debate, is certainly game for a third term if the opportunity arises. Those close to the PM say that Singh's endorsement of Rahul is a tactical move as he is fully aware how reluctant the Gandhi scion is to take on the job.
Of course, Singh as PM is a long shot less because there are other candidates in the fray and more because the UPA regaining power looks almost as likely as Costa Rica or Iranwinning the 2014 Fifa World Cup. "There will be no UPA-3," Derek O'Brien, chief whip of theTrinamool Congress in the Rajya Sabha declares. So O'Brien's answer to whether Singh will be PM once again is a "straight no".
An Honourable Man
Singh who assumed office as a reluctant prime minister in 2004 is credited with being the only PM after Jawaharlal Nehru to have addressed the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day consecutively for a decade. "You have to be very shrewd to be out there for 10 years," a ministerial colleague points out. However, in UPA-2, a series of financial scandals revolving around allocation of 2G spectrum and coal blocks, amongst many others, has taken the sheen of Singh's record as PM.
There are those in the Congress, however, who insist that the party may be singed by scam but not Singh. Ashwani Kumar, a former law minister who himself had to resign in the wake of revelations that he had peeked into the CBI's status report on the Coalgate case before it was submitted to the Supreme Court, reckons that history will judge Singh differently (from how his critics are judging him). "Even his worst detractors have not been able to point a finger at his personal integrity, despite all the allegations and scams that have created headlines."
That statement of Kumar, who is considered to be close to the PM, is difficult to defend. Says Yogendra Yadav, a political analyst and now a member of the Aam Aadmi Party: "The sheen of PM Singh's personal integrity has taken a huge beating with the number of scams that have been exposed. What good is such honesty that turns a blind eye to the corruption around you?"
Adds O'Brien: "Congress will get around 100 seats, a sharp indictment for its anti-people policies. Regional parties with a national agenda will lead the government." But if the UPA is able to scrape through and cobble together a coalition, you know who will be the man they turn to.
The minister made this statement when asked to comment on Singh's recent statement that he was willing to work in any "position under Rahul Gandhiji" in the party, leading many to believe that Singh was finally calling it quits after the end of this term. While Singh's statement added to the clamour for anointing Gandhi as Congress's PM candidate his message between the lines was lost in the din. "It is clear that it is eitherRahul Gandhi or him if the UPA gets a third term," a close aide of the PM says.
Anyone who rules out a third term for Manmohan Singh as PM does not understand politics," a cabinet minister and a close aide of the prime minister told ET Magazine.Sanjaya Baru, a former media adviser to Singh who has worked closely on some very important issues like the nuclear deal with the US, says it would be difficult to rob the 80-yearold PM of his position if the Congress was to seek a mandate. "There would be no reason not to make him PM again, unless he chooses not to take the job," he says.
"If the Congress goes to the people seeking a mandate in the name of its performance under UPA-1 and UPA-2, then a victory would be a vote of confidence for Dr Singh, like it was in 2009," he adds.
It's All in the Numbers
The Congress message is out there in its posters that depict the "troika": Sonia Gandhi as the Congress party president, PM Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi, vice-president of the Congress. While Sonia will remain kingmaker, the toss-up between Rahul and Singh as PM (if there is a UPA III) would depend on the numbers.
Congress strategists are clear that Rahul will be pushed for the job only if the Congress comes back with a thumping majority, which looks unlikely as of today. A majority at the ballot box would also be a vote in favour of Rahul and his plan to resurrect the party. Going by the weak seat numbers projected by news channels (136 by one) for the Congress, it will require numerous alliances if the UPA has to stake claim for a third term. This is where Singh comes in.
He was after all the only consensual candidate who does not pose a threat to most alliance partners, points out the former cabinet minister in Singh's team. Singh's statement on Rahul to reporters on their way back from the G-20 summit in the Russian city of St Petersburg was more of a message to the PM aspirants within the Congress ranks whose names have been popping up every time there is a crisis, another minister in Singh's cabinet said. Whilefinance minister P Chidambaram's competence is his USP for the job, AK Antony's die-hard loyalty to the Gandhi family and his personal integrity make him a possible alternative to Singh within Lutyen Delhi's power corridors.
But Singh, whose political acumen was once a matter of debate, is certainly game for a third term if the opportunity arises. Those close to the PM say that Singh's endorsement of Rahul is a tactical move as he is fully aware how reluctant the Gandhi scion is to take on the job.
Of course, Singh as PM is a long shot less because there are other candidates in the fray and more because the UPA regaining power looks almost as likely as Costa Rica or Iranwinning the 2014 Fifa World Cup. "There will be no UPA-3," Derek O'Brien, chief whip of theTrinamool Congress in the Rajya Sabha declares. So O'Brien's answer to whether Singh will be PM once again is a "straight no".
An Honourable Man
Singh who assumed office as a reluctant prime minister in 2004 is credited with being the only PM after Jawaharlal Nehru to have addressed the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day consecutively for a decade. "You have to be very shrewd to be out there for 10 years," a ministerial colleague points out. However, in UPA-2, a series of financial scandals revolving around allocation of 2G spectrum and coal blocks, amongst many others, has taken the sheen of Singh's record as PM.
There are those in the Congress, however, who insist that the party may be singed by scam but not Singh. Ashwani Kumar, a former law minister who himself had to resign in the wake of revelations that he had peeked into the CBI's status report on the Coalgate case before it was submitted to the Supreme Court, reckons that history will judge Singh differently (from how his critics are judging him). "Even his worst detractors have not been able to point a finger at his personal integrity, despite all the allegations and scams that have created headlines."
That statement of Kumar, who is considered to be close to the PM, is difficult to defend. Says Yogendra Yadav, a political analyst and now a member of the Aam Aadmi Party: "The sheen of PM Singh's personal integrity has taken a huge beating with the number of scams that have been exposed. What good is such honesty that turns a blind eye to the corruption around you?"
Adds O'Brien: "Congress will get around 100 seats, a sharp indictment for its anti-people policies. Regional parties with a national agenda will lead the government." But if the UPA is able to scrape through and cobble together a coalition, you know who will be the man they turn to.
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