From: ShunkW <shunkw@sbcglobal.net>
Date: Mon, Jul 5, 2010 at 11:45 PM
Subject: CA Gov: $91 Mil Later, 3 Months Before Vote, GOP's Whitman Trails Jerry Brown in Polls
To: ShunkW <shunkw@sbcglobal.net>
CA Gov: $91 Mil Later, 3 Months Before Vote, GOP's Whitman Trails Jerry Brown in Polls
Jon Ponder | Jul. 5, 2010
Whitman at what she had billed as a news conference, reacting to reporters' outrage after learning she was reneging on her promise to take their questions
She's in 'Deep, Deep Trouble,' Says Brown
To win the Republican primary for California governor this year, former eBay exec Meg Whitman burned through at least $80 million of her own money. After a particularly nasty primary campaign against State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, however, voters were so turned off that turnout was only 25 percent — the lowest in 96 years — which meant that winning the nomination ended up costing Whitman $90 per vote.
Meanwhile, Jerry Brown, the state's attorney general and former two-term governor, ran virtually unopposed in the Democratic Party, and spent next to nothing on his campaign.
In the month or so since the primary, Whitman has spent another $11 million, including $6 million on the sort of bloody buzz-saw negative advertising against Brown that is usually reserved for the final weeks of a campaign. And again, the Brown campaign has spent next to nothing on advertising (although a union group has anti-Whitman ads up).
So where does all that leave Whitman in the polls?
Six points behind, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Whitman, who exhibits a palpable loathing for the media, has been mum on the bad news, choosing to react through a surrogate. On the other hand, Gen. Brown has gone on the record to declare that Whitman's campaign is "in deep, deep trouble":
Asked about the poll, Brown noted that his lead had widened compared to previous other polls although Whitman has been running negative TV ads against him for about a week while Brown has spent virtually nothing…
"She's been on the air," Brown said. "I think she's spent almost $6 million on television, and she hasn't moved a point. In fact, I think she lost a point. So what seems to be happening is the credibility of the Republican candidate has really deteriorated and suffered some real blows because of the Poizner campaign," referring to defeated Republican primary gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner.
"And then, her continuing being on the air, at some point, people say, 'Gee, enough already. I mean this is the summer. The kids are out of school. Let's kind of have a normal life. Do we have to listen to this ad every hour?' And it's the same old stuff, and I think people aren't believing it. And when that happens, a candidate is in deep, deep trouble."
Brown addressed some of the antifactual claims about his first two terms as governor in the Whitman ad:
"The fact is I didn't raise taxes," Brown said. "I cut taxes by billions, the income tax, we eliminated the inventory tax. And on top of that, our spending was the tightest ever relative to the state gross product. And if you really want to know what happened to a lot of the money, we put in down to the local government after Prop. 13, billions, from the state surplus that I had saved. The state of California was in very good shape when I left."
(Brown did sign a bill, supported by Republicans, increasing gasoline taxes by two cents a gallon. )
Despite a recession in the early 1980s, Brown said, "$5 billion more revenue was coming in" two years later, which he said "meant that the underlying health of the economy was in very good shape…
"Every time you look at these things, you see it's just not true, and it's kind of sad, because I think the voters are onto it. And with me not even putting out an ad, her campaign is pretty well stalled."
Brown has also claimed that, "When I was governor of California, we built up the largest surplus in history — $4.5 billion. We created 1.9 million jobs. We reduced taxes by billions, OK?"
Whitman has unlimited funds at her disposal, but within a week or two, her spending will top $100 million, and California voters have rejected the previous three wealthy candidates who were perceived to be trying to "buy" elected office in the state. Whitman also opposes abortion and supports offshore drilling on the California coast, positions that are out of synch with California voters.
There may be even worse news for Whitman. It remains to be seen but her early advertising strategy may have backfired. Since she entered the campaign with near zero name recognition in the state, she introduced herself to voters in a multimillion-dollar radio campaign in which she portrayed herself as a friendly and reasonable person who favored education and lower taxes — and, you know, puppies and rainbows.
But when the gloves came off in her race against Poizner, so did the mask. What voters saw then was a typical pol who would do or say — or spend — whatever it took to be elected. It also came to light that she has anger issues — she was caught on video smiling broadly to suppress what appeared to be disdain at the effrontery of reporters who dared to object to her refusal to take questions at an event she'd billed as a news conference but had always intended to use as simply a photo op. More recently, she was forced to admit that she had angrily shoved a staffer when she was an executive at eBay. The staffer was awarded $200,000 after the incident.
Still, Washington pundits are predicting the California governor's race will be close.
Sw
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